July 19, 2010
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By Marc Daniels
UCFAthletics.com
ORLANDO, Fla. (UCFAthletics.com) - If you don't think a preseason ranking has value in college football, then you don't know the system of college football today. It matters, whether it is fair or not, that what others think about you goes a long way in how a season may go.
When the Orlando Sentinel ranked UCF 47th in its national rankings of all teams last, a friend asked "do you think that's fair?" I said, no. I said I thought we should have been ranked higher.
College football's non-playoff world means perception is everything. College football is about expectations and measuring teams in ways different than other sports that have a tournament to determine a champion.
Rankings in college football weigh far more than how you played last week, next week, last month or next month. College football is a continuous beauty pageant that measures how you look over years. Want proof? I give you Boise State.
The Broncos may begin the season ranked in the top three in the major polls that do matter in the national championship race. They are legitimate title contenders by the ranking alone. Boise State went 14-0 last season. They are 49-4 over the last four years. They have gone 63-2 at home over the last ten seasons. And to add to that, they have not one, but two BCS bowl wins in four years.
All those numbers warrant the national praise and the Broncos have positioned themselves that if they can win against Virginia Tech in Baltimore on Labor Day, they could then run the table and play for the BCS title.
Do you know how many wins against ranked teams Boise State has over the last six seasons? Before you answer, remember, the Broncos are 58-8 overall and 32-1 at home over those six years. Remember the theory that perception is everything my friends. Remember that how you win and when you win and if you win on national television is important. Ok, the wait is over. The answer to the question of how many wins does Boise State have against ranked teams over the last six seasons is...four. Two of those came in their BCS bowl games against TCU and Oklahoma. The other two were against Oregon the last two seasons. Over the last six seasons, Boise State's regular season record against ranked teams is 2-3. Perception is everything and Boise State has built a national reputation of winning at the right time in those bowl games and winning on national television.
Over those same six seasons, do you know how many times Boise State played on ESPN? Over 30 times they have been showcased and their win percentage in those games is over .800. (By the way, that's one interesting note about their move to the Mountain West Conference. The MWC has had less than 10 conference games air on ESPN over those six seasons. Could the conference move be the biggest obstacle for Boise State in the coming years regarding the BCS title race?)
When it comes to polls in college football, it is better to be ranked now than not be ranked at all. It is easier to move up the polls if you are in them. Ask Auburn if it mattered back in 2004 when they went undefeated. That season the Tigers were not ranked in the preseason polls. By the time that battled their way up the rankings it was too late. They were left out of the national title game. Do you really think if Auburn was ranked third when the season started that they would have been left out of that game?
We know the media and fans read preseason publications and love to see where others rank their teams. Don't believe coaches when they say they don't read those things. Do you really believe a coach who votes in their official poll sits down and studies film on everyone and uses only that as a means to rank teams at the beginning of the season?
UCF will be ranked high in the pre-season Conference USA poll. Does that guarantee success on the field? No. But it's always better to be thought of as a top contending team than one no cares about. A UCF fan should love that fans in East Carolina, Southern Miss, Marshall and elsewhere in the league think they are one of the teams to beat.
Expectations are good and there is nothing wrong with UCF fans expecting a good season. How much fun would it be if we were expecting a bad season?
Let's not kid ourselves. NC State players and fans expect to come to Bright House Networks Stadium and win. UCF players and fans expect to beat NC State. The game in 2007 has no factor in the game on Sept. 11. But the game could go a long way in determining the season for both. NC State opens with Western Carolina before coming to Orlando. The Wolfpack host Cincinnati the following Thursday after UCF and then go to Georgia Tech. UCF opens with South Dakota and after NC State travels to Buffalo and Kansas State in consecutive weeks. If you don't think there's a big difference between 2-0 and 1-1, then you don't know college football. Because in college football...perception is everything.
Knights notes and more:Short and simple this week, it's the summer...Georgia is tossing out 14,000 media guides and re-printing the guides in the wake of their recent news that led to the resignation of their athletic director. In the electronic world we live in, the next time that happens it won't cost $50,000 like Georgia is paying. It will be an intern in sports information clicking delete page and enter new page in your on-line only media guide...The new "First Four" format for the NCAA Basketball Tournament sounds exciting. I will be on board when ACC, Big East, Big Ten and SEC are playing in those games and not C-USA, Missouri Valley and Atlantic 10 teams like I expect...Final thought: Just get it over already and start charging me $10 for a movie ticket, $10 for a drink and $10 for popcorn when I go to the theater. I already know how this pricing thing is going to end. I don't need a slow plot.
Marc Daniels' From the Press Box runs several times per month on UCFAthletics.com. Listen to Marc during UCF football, men's basketball and baseball radio broadcasts on the UCF-ISP Sports Network. Each weekday, Marc hosts "The Beat of Sports" on ESPN 1080 in Orlando from 9-11 a.m.